Donald Trump for the Nobel Prize in Gaslighting
His whiplash lies about Iran showed he knows 'what the f* he's doing.' A day-by-day breakdown of the calculated chaos.
Don’t try making sense yet—or maybe ever—out of what is happening in the Middle East.
Chaos, confusion and disorientation are the point. Donald Trump has cast himself as a producer, not a president. You know which one he’s better at.
Trump hardly bears responsibility for the strife in the Middle East; that reality dates back centuries. But he knows a great set when he sees it. The man who famously lacks the attention span to endure foreign policy briefings is at best guided by instinct, not ideology.
At worst? Who knows. Again, that’s somewhat the point.
I’ll leave it to those with higher pay grades to assess Trump’s motives and desired end game. Good luck with that. I’d say we can rule out ideology. But I’m not armchair quarterbacking what parts thirst for power or vengeance—or the treasure of sheiks—drives Donald Trump.
My sliver of expertise stems from half a century in journalism and, yes, Trump is a unicorn. For decades, he has played the media like a fiddle. All of the media. Entertainment, tabloid, sports and now, mostly, news.
From Trump’s perspective, having ascended to the presidency for a final time — note I didn’t say “four more years” —provides a match made in hell: The pathological narcissist with the world-class production skills and instincts at last sits atop the world stage.
More precisely, for this one shining moment, he owns it.
One minute, Trump wants you to believe that—with the wave of a producer’s magic wand—he fixed the Middle East with a single, mighty bombing raid executed by history’s most powerful military. Co-piloted by God. And that he then settled down Israel and Iran for a forever peace, just like that.
But in the next breath, he wants you to believe that Israel and Iran "don’t know what the fuck they’re doing." That line—delivered Sunday with peak Trumpian vulgarity—was meant to sound tough, as if he were the only adult left in the room.
If you believe it was spontaneous, fine. I don’t.
But like everything else since last Friday’s bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, it tells us more about Trump than the countries he's blaming.
He claims to have brokered a ceasefire, then to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear program. He then blasts Israel for violating the ceasefire he supposedly negotiated—even though his own statement encouraged further strikes. He says he's against regime change, then floats it. He attacks his own intelligence officials when they contradict his hype. Nothing new there. And he leaves even his staunchest allies scrambling to clean up the mess.
What we’re witnessing isn't foreign policy. It's a master class in gaslighting. So here's a day-by-day breakdown of Trump’s Nobel-worthy performance.
Friday: The Bombs Drop
Trump announces on Truth Social that the U.S. has bombed three Iranian nuclear sites. He declares the mission a complete success, describing it as a "full payload" on the Fordow facility. "They never saw it coming," he boasts. There's no mention of diplomacy, restraint, or intelligence assessments—only military dominance.
That same day, Fox surrogates like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth begin parroting the line: this was a masterstroke. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoes the talking point, claiming the strikes dealt a decisive blow. Sen. Lindsey Graham goes further, hinting that regime change might be the logical next step.
Saturday: Ceasefire, Sort Of
Suddenly, Trump declares a ceasefire is in effect. In one breath, he's warning everyone not to violate it. In the next, he's praising Israel's courage and daring. Confused? So were his own people.
By nightfall, Israel resumes strikes. Iran responds. The ceasefire collapses before the ink even dries (not that there was any ink).
Sunday: The F-Bomb Heard Round the World
Pressed by reporters about why the ceasefire failed, Trump goes full projection:
"We basically have two countries that don’t know what the fuck they’re doing."
Monday: The Reality Check Arrives
Leaked intelligence assessments start making their way into the press. The Defense Intelligence Agency says the strikes may have delayed Iran's nuclear development by only a few months. Key infrastructure was left intact. Trump’s claim of "obliteration" doesn’t hold up.
Trump, of course, denies the report, calling it "inconclusive." That’s when he decides his own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, must be the problem. After she confirms there is no clear evidence that Iran is actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, Trump simply says: "She's wrong."
Tuesday: Allies Twist Themselves in Knots
Rubio walks back his claim about the damage being decisive. Hegseth calls the bombing campaign both a success and a violation of Trump’s diplomatic instincts. Graham suddenly supports the ceasefire he was trashing 48 hours earlier. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who had just backed Trump's illegal unilateral strike authority, now supports a War Powers review. Meanwhile, MAGA figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene are publicly begging Trump to stop short of full-scale war. Statesman MTG? God help us.
Wednesday: Trump Suddenly Likes NATO After Members Bathe Him in Flattery
Dispatches from the Hague report that cats are now chasing dogs. Trump’s infamous claims that NATO was just a big “ripoff” taking advantage of the USA? Nah. Trump said he was “leaving convinced these people love their countries... they’re not ripoffs” and called member leaders a “nice group of people.”
What about the bitter divide about Ukraine? What? Who? Where?
Speaking without attribution as if that means Trump cannot hear their words, NATO leaders tell the media that they accomplished it all with a strategy of flattery. Just don’t tell him. I’ve think I’ve seen it all.
Nobody can keep up. And that's the point.
Trump has emerged as the world’s greatest practitioner of the weaponization of chaos. Trump floods the zone with conflicting messages, reversals, lies and exaggerations—then accuses everyone else of being unstable. The media scrambles to clarify timelines. Allies flip scripts in real-time. The public shrugs, numb from years of whiplash.
We all drink from firehoses.
Trump and his narcissistic demons have long thirsted only for a Nobel Peace Prize. Should he ever receive one, Nobel will have banished itself to some form of philosophical purgatory.
But if Nobel is smart, it will make just one contemporary addition to its esteemed list of award categories. That would be gaslighting.
And we’ve got their winner.
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